How Reliable is the World Population Forecast?

Short answer - Very reliable


In this short video Professor Hans Rosling shows that already back in the 1950’s the UN population experts were able to predict very precisely the population growth for the next 50 years. The forecasts made today predict that by the end of the century, there will be around 11 billion people in the world. The track record of the UN statisticians shows that their global forecasts have been very accurate historically.

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Nico Keilman “Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95”,; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012.